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Posted by HY Markets on Monday July 26, 2010 2:45 pm

Commodities – Gold fell on Friday with no surprises to stir safe-haven demand but the metal largely held its ground after stress tests showed seven European banks were not strong enough to withstand another recession. After the stress tests results, the gold market largely took its lead from the euro, which fell against the dollar on worries the tests were not strict enough to reveal the true health of the sector, traders said. Gold was lower for a second straight week, as prices still failed to break out of a broad range between $1,180 and $1,220. A stronger dollar against the euro has pressured bullion this week. The usual inverse relationship between gold and the dollar weakened at the start of the year as both benefited from risk aversion during the sovereign debt crisis, but has since shown signs of re-emerging. Gold is now looking forward to a number of key US economic indicators for trading cues, including the advanced reading of the second-quarter GDP due Friday.

Copper surged 9 percent last week for its biggest weekly gain since February, as a soft dollar and firm economic data boosted most commodities last week, although evidence of a few fragile European banks worried some investors, limiting gains. Copper, one of the world's most crucial industrial metals and key to the construction and power generation businesses, gained 0.7 percent on Friday and nearly 9 percent on the week after ending up a fifth straight session. It was the metal's biggest weekly gain since February 21, helped by the dollar's slide against the euro, encouraging economic data on both sides of the Atlantic and a spike in buying from top copper consumer China.

Crude Oil – Oil prices surged last week to an 11-week high above $79 a barrel, lifted by stronger-than-expected economic data that boosted equities markets and by concerns about a tropical depression that might threaten Gulf of Mexico production. The dollar's weakness against a basket of currencies also provided a boost.

Oil had dropped mid-week as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed concerns about the US economy and after government data showed an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories last week.

US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly last week as crude imports expanded, and oil product stocks also rose, according to US Energy Information Administration data issued on Wednesday. Commercial crude stocks rose 360,000 barrels in the week to July 16 to 353.5 million barrels, the EIA said. Analysts had expected a 1.4-million-barrel draw. Domestic gasoline inventories were up 1.12 million barrels at 222.15 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a build of 900,000 barrels. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by a sharper 3.94 million barrels to 166.58 million barrels, compared to analyst forecasts for a gain of 1.7 million barrels.

Prices were boosted last week by the forecast of storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The US National Hurricane Centre said the weather system had a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm. The US hurricane season which runs from June to November, usually peaks in early September. The hurricanes could stop oil and natural gas production as they force oil companies to evacuate staff from offshore platforms. It could also hit coastal refineries.

Natural Gas –- US natural gas futures ended lower on Friday, pressured by milder weather forecasts for this week and dwindling concerns that Tropical Storm Bonnie will seriously disrupt Gulf Coast gas supplies. Bonnie strengthened into a tropical storm late Thursday as it headed towards South Florida on its way to the central Gulf of Mexico. But the storm is not expected to strengthen much, with peak winds only forecast to climb to about 52 mph before making landfall near the Louisiana-Mississippi border on Sunday.

The weekly US Energy Information Administration storage report showed total domestic gas inventories climbed last week by 51 billion cubic feet to 2.891 trillion cubic feet. The build was in line with the estimate for a 53-bcf gain but below the year-ago rise of 70 bcf and the five-year average increase for that week of 64 bcf. The report showed the storage deficit to year-ago grew by 19 bcf to 52 bcf, or 2 percent, below last year's record highs, while the surplus to the five-year average fell 13 bcf to 261 bcf, still a comfortable 10 percent cushion to help rebuild stocks for next winter. If weekly builds through October match the five-year average pace, inventories will begin next heating season with 3.744 tcf in the ground, below last November's record high of 3.837 tcf, but about 7 percent above average. Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 37 bcf to 42 bcf, versus a 70-bcf build for the same week last year and a five-year average gain of 50 bcf.






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