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Posted by HY Markets on Monday July 26, 2010 2:45 pm
Commodities
– Gold fell on Friday with no surprises to stir safe-haven
demand but the metal largely held its ground after stress tests showed
seven European banks were not strong enough to withstand another
recession. After the stress tests results, the gold market largely took
its lead from the euro, which fell against the dollar on worries the
tests were not strict enough to reveal the true health of the sector,
traders said. Gold was lower for a second straight week, as prices
still failed to break out of a broad range between $1,180 and $1,220. A
stronger dollar against the euro has pressured bullion this week. The
usual inverse relationship between gold and the dollar weakened at the
start of the year as both benefited from risk aversion during the
sovereign debt crisis, but has since shown signs of re-emerging. Gold
is now looking forward to a number of key US economic indicators for
trading cues, including the advanced reading of the second-quarter GDP
due Friday.
Copper surged 9 percent last week for its biggest weekly gain since
February, as a soft dollar and firm economic data boosted most
commodities last week, although evidence of a few fragile European
banks worried some investors, limiting gains. Copper, one of the
world's most crucial industrial metals and key to the construction and
power generation businesses, gained 0.7 percent on Friday and nearly 9
percent on the week after ending up a fifth straight session. It was
the metal's biggest weekly gain since February 21, helped by the
dollar's slide against the euro, encouraging economic data on both
sides of the Atlantic and a spike in buying from top copper consumer
China.
Crude Oil – Oil prices surged last week to an 11-week
high above $79 a barrel, lifted by stronger-than-expected economic data
that boosted equities markets and by concerns about a tropical
depression that might threaten Gulf of Mexico production. The dollar's
weakness against a basket of currencies also provided a boost.
Oil had dropped mid-week as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
expressed concerns about the US economy and after government data
showed an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories last week.
US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly last week as crude
imports expanded, and oil product stocks also rose, according to US
Energy Information Administration data issued on Wednesday. Commercial
crude stocks rose 360,000 barrels in the week to July 16 to 353.5
million barrels, the EIA said. Analysts had expected a
1.4-million-barrel draw. Domestic gasoline inventories were up 1.12
million barrels at 222.15 million barrels, while analysts had forecast
a build of 900,000 barrels. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and
heating oil, rose by a sharper 3.94 million barrels to 166.58 million
barrels, compared to analyst forecasts for a gain of 1.7 million
barrels.
Prices were boosted last week by the forecast of storms in the Gulf of
Mexico. The US National Hurricane Centre said the weather system had a
40 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm. The US hurricane
season which runs from June to November, usually peaks in early
September. The hurricanes could stop oil and natural gas production as
they force oil companies to evacuate staff from offshore platforms. It
could also hit coastal refineries.
Natural Gas –- US natural gas futures ended lower on
Friday, pressured by milder weather forecasts for this week and
dwindling concerns that Tropical Storm Bonnie will seriously disrupt
Gulf Coast gas supplies. Bonnie strengthened into a tropical storm late
Thursday as it headed towards South Florida on its way to the central
Gulf of Mexico. But the storm is not expected to strengthen much, with
peak winds only forecast to climb to about 52 mph before making
landfall near the Louisiana-Mississippi border on Sunday.
The weekly US Energy Information Administration storage report showed
total domestic gas inventories climbed last week by 51 billion cubic
feet to 2.891 trillion cubic feet. The build was in line with the
estimate for a 53-bcf gain but below the year-ago rise of 70 bcf and
the five-year average increase for that week of 64 bcf. The report
showed the storage deficit to year-ago grew by 19 bcf to 52 bcf, or 2
percent, below last year's record highs, while the surplus to the
five-year average fell 13 bcf to 261 bcf, still a comfortable 10
percent cushion to help rebuild stocks for next winter. If weekly
builds through October match the five-year average pace, inventories
will begin next heating season with 3.744 tcf in the ground, below last
November's record high of 3.837 tcf, but about 7 percent above average.
Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 37 bcf
to 42 bcf, versus a 70-bcf build for the same week last year and a
five-year average gain of 50 bcf.