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Posted by HY Markets on Monday July 05, 2010 2:47 pm
Commodities
– Gold prices rebounded on Friday on technical strength and
bargain hunting after double-dip recession fears triggered the biggest
losses in six weeks in the previous session. Gold was supported by a
stronger euro against the dollar ahead of the US Independence Day long
weekend, even as crude oil was on track to fall almost 10 percent for
the week after a larger-than-expected decline in June US nonfarm
payrolls. Silver and platinum group metals also fell sharply for the
week on demand worries amid signs of slowing economic recovery and
lacklustre US auto sales.
Gold ended the week nearly 4 percent lower, following
Thursday's plunge to below $1,200 an ounce as a major technical break
sparked fund selling. The bullion market initially ignored a report
that showed US private payrolls rose only modestly in June and overall
employment fell for the first time this year. Meanwhile, gold continued
to trade in close tandem with the US dollar, maintaining a link that
was strongest at the height of the European debt crisis in May, when
the two were generally rising.
Sugar prices fell following July's expiry on Wednesday, as
dealers predicted the demand which propped up July prices, would now
taper off. The size of the upcoming Indian crop remains key to sugar's
price outlook and with uncertainty as to whether the country will need
to import sugar in 2010/11, dealers said it was too early to have a
clear view. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer but its
production has seen large swings over the past couple of seasons as
farmers have responded to prices.
Crude Oil – Oil fell for the fifth day in a row on Friday, as US employment in June fell for the first time this year, adding to worries that the economic recovery is stalling. Crude slid for the first time in four weeks. In the process, it suffered the steepest decline since the first trading week of May, at the onset of the euro-zone's sovereign debt troubles. On a weekly basis, oil prices were down about 9 percent. In the second quarter, they fell almost 10 percent, reacting to a toxic mix of risk aversion, equity losses, European debt worries, sluggish global growth and high crude stockpiles.
Crude oil stockpiles in the United States fell more than expected last week as imports declined, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose, according to US Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2 million barrels in the week ended June 25 to 363.1 million barrels, EIA said. Analysts had expected crude stocks to fall by a more modest 900,000 barrels. Crude stocks fell as US crude imports dropped by 631,000 barrels per day (bpd) to an average 9.45 million bpd. US gasoline inventories rose by 537,000 barrels to 218.1 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 500,000 barrels. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.5 million barrels to 159.4 million barrels, the EIA data showed, compared with analyst forecasts for a more modest, 800,000 barrel rise.
OPEC crude oil supply is expected to fall in June from the 17-month high reached in May because of lower supplies from Iraq, Angola and Nigeria. Supply from the 11 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with output targets, all except Iraq, averaged 26.75 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down from 26.90 million bpd in May, according to a survey of oil firms, OPEC officials and analysts. The decline mainly reflects output disruption in Nigeria rather than an OPEC effort to improve adherence to output targets, which has been falling since 2009. OPEC, source of more than a third of the world's oil, has left its output ceiling unchanged for more than a year since announcing a record supply curb of 4.2 million bpd in December 2008 to combat lower demand and prices.
Natural Gas –- Gas prices ended sharply lower on Friday, as investors took profits ahead of the holiday weekend despite Thursday's supportive weekly inventory report.
Thursday's 60 billion cubic feet weekly inventory build was seen as supportive, noting it was below the estimate of 64 bcf and well below last year's 73 bcf gain and the five-year average for that week of 82 bcf. But the US Energy Information Administration report showed total domestic gas inventories for the week ended June 25 climbed to 2.684 trillion cubic feet, just 27 bcf or 1 percent, below last year's record highs and a level not normally reached until after the third week of July. The injection cut the inventory surplus to the five-year average by 22 bcf to 287 bcf, but stocks still stand at a comfortable 12 percent cushion to that benchmark. Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 66 bcf to 86 bcf, versus a 74-bcf build for the same week last year and a five-year average gain of 80 bcf. If weekly stock builds through October match the five-year average pace, US inventories will begin next heating season with 3.770 tcf in the ground, below last November's record high of 3.837 tcf, but still more than 8 percent above average.