 U.S. crude oil futures ended lower but well above the day's lows on Friday, as Wall Street strengthened on positive earnings results and with oil traders cautiously weighing the potential impact of production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Tropical Storm Bonnie.  Oil futures pared losses on production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of Tropical Storm Bonnie, but storm worries eased as Bonnie was not expected to become a hurricane before making landfall between the Louisiana coast and Florida's northwest Panhandle early on Sunday morning.  Prices moved sideways for most of the day, particularly after stress test results on European banks elicited a muted reaction on Wall Street. Later, however, the widely followed S&P 500 index moved above 1,100 for the first time since June 22 on a report of some positive earnings results.  "Although the late session equity strength provided support, some weakening in the euro and apparent evaporation of some of yesterday's storm premium appeared to restrict upside price progress," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illlinois.

Gold closed lower on Monday and extend the decline after a short covering bounce off the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing is the next downside target.

Silver closed higher on Monday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term high might be in or is near. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If it extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing is the next downside target.

Crude Oil closed unchanged on Monday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off this month's low, June's high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing would temper the near-term friendly outlook.

Natural Gas closed higher due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term friendly outlook.

Coffee closed lower on Monday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signalling that sideways trading is possible near-term. From a broad perspective, it needs to close above or below to clear up near-term direction in the market.

Commodities – Gold fell on Friday with no surprises to stir safe-haven demand but the metal largely held its ground after stress tests showed seven European banks were not strong enough to withstand another recession. After the stress tests results, the gold market largely took its lead from the euro, which fell against the dollar on worries the tests were not strict enough to reveal the true health of the sector, traders said. Gold was lower for a second straight week, as prices still failed to break out of a broad range between $1,180 and $1,220. A stronger dollar against the euro has pressured bullion this week. The usual inverse relationship between gold and the dollar weakened at the start of the year as both benefited from risk aversion during the sovereign debt crisis, but has since shown signs of re-emerging. Gold is now looking forward to a number of key US economic indicators for trading cues, including the advanced reading of the second-quarter GDP due Friday.

Copper surged 9 percent last week for its biggest weekly gain since February, as a soft dollar and firm economic data boosted most commodities last week, although evidence of a few fragile European banks worried some investors, limiting gains. Copper, one of the world's most crucial industrial metals and key to the construction and power generation businesses, gained 0.7 percent on Friday and nearly 9 percent on the week after ending up a fifth straight session. It was the metal's biggest weekly gain since February 21, helped by the dollar's slide against the euro, encouraging economic data on both sides of the Atlantic and a spike in buying from top copper consumer China.

Crude Oil – Oil prices surged last week to an 11-week high above $79 a barrel, lifted by stronger-than-expected economic data that boosted equities markets and by concerns about a tropical depression that might threaten Gulf of Mexico production. The dollar's weakness against a basket of currencies also provided a boost.

Oil had dropped mid-week as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed concerns about the US economy and after government data showed an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories last week.

US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly last week as crude imports expanded, and oil product stocks also rose, according to US Energy Information Administration data issued on Wednesday. Commercial crude stocks rose 360,000 barrels in the week to July 16 to 353.5 million barrels, the EIA said. Analysts had expected a 1.4-million-barrel draw. Domestic gasoline inventories were up 1.12 million barrels at 222.15 million barrels, while analysts had forecast a build of 900,000 barrels. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by a sharper 3.94 million barrels to 166.58 million barrels, compared to analyst forecasts for a gain of 1.7 million barrels.

Prices were boosted last week by the forecast of storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The US National Hurricane Centre said the weather system had a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm. The US hurricane season which runs from June to November, usually peaks in early September. The hurricanes could stop oil and natural gas production as they force oil companies to evacuate staff from offshore platforms. It could also hit coastal refineries.

Natural Gas –- US natural gas futures ended lower on Friday, pressured by milder weather forecasts for this week and dwindling concerns that Tropical Storm Bonnie will seriously disrupt Gulf Coast gas supplies. Bonnie strengthened into a tropical storm late Thursday as it headed towards South Florida on its way to the central Gulf of Mexico. But the storm is not expected to strengthen much, with peak winds only forecast to climb to about 52 mph before making landfall near the Louisiana-Mississippi border on Sunday.

The weekly US Energy Information Administration storage report showed total domestic gas inventories climbed last week by 51 billion cubic feet to 2.891 trillion cubic feet. The build was in line with the estimate for a 53-bcf gain but below the year-ago rise of 70 bcf and the five-year average increase for that week of 64 bcf. The report showed the storage deficit to year-ago grew by 19 bcf to 52 bcf, or 2 percent, below last year's record highs, while the surplus to the five-year average fell 13 bcf to 261 bcf, still a comfortable 10 percent cushion to help rebuild stocks for next winter. If weekly builds through October match the five-year average pace, inventories will begin next heating season with 3.744 tcf in the ground, below last November's record high of 3.837 tcf, but about 7 percent above average. Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 37 bcf to 42 bcf, versus a 70-bcf build for the same week last year and a five-year average gain of 50 bcf.

Crude Oil – Oil ended higher for the third consecutive day on Friday and notched the best weekly gain since May as upward momentum held on demand optimism following Thursday's data showing a large crude supply drawdown. With the day's advance, crude oil posted a weekly gain of 5.48 percent, bouncing from a hefty loss of 8.5 percent in the week to July 2. The week's gain was the biggest percentage-wise since the week ending to May 28, when oil futures closed up 5.61 percent.
US crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, according to US Energy Information Administration data on Thursday, after energy companies in the Gulf of Mexico shut offshore production as a precautionary step ahead of Hurricane Alex. Commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.96 million barrels in the week to July 2, the EIA said. Analysts had expected a 2.3 million barrel draw. The data was delayed from the usual Wednesday release due to the US Independence Day holiday. Hurricane Alex, which hit near the US-Mexico border last week, missed key oil and natural gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico. Companies evacuated personnel from offshore rigs and shut-in production as a precaution, however. US gasoline inventories gained 1.32 million barrels to 219.44 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 200,000 barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 321,000 barrels to 159.7 million barrels, the EIA data showed, compared with analyst forecasts for 1.4 million barrel rise.
The US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday raised its 2010 world oil demand growth forecast by 60,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate. The EIA said in its monthly forecast it now expects world oil demand to climb by 1.56 million bpd in 2010 to 85.82 million bpd from a year earlier. Nearly all growth in world oil consumption this year will come from outside the major industrialised countries, led by China, Saudi Arabia and Brazil, the EIA said. The agency also said world oil prices will rise slowly "as an expected renewal of global economic growth leads to higher world oil demand."

Natural Gas –- Gas prices ended the week down about 6 percent as a bigger-than-expected build to winter inventories weighed on prices.
On the storage front, most traders agreed Thursday's 78 billion cubic feet weekly build was bearish, noting it was above estimates for a 72 bcf build and the year-ago gain of 74 bcf. The build, however, was below the five-year average gain of 80 bcf for that week. The US Energy Information Administration report showed total domestic gas inventories climbed to 2.762 trillion cubic feet, just 23 bcf, or 1 percent, below last year's record highs. The build cut the inventory surplus to the five-year average by 2 bcf to 285 bcf, but storage still stands at a comfortable 11.5 percent cushion to that benchmark. If weekly stock builds through October match the five-year average pace, US inventories will begin next heating season with 3.768 tcf in the ground, below last November's record high of 3.837 tcf, but still about 8 percent above average. Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 48 bcf to 72 bcf, versus an 88 bcf build for the same week last year and a five-year average gain of 89 bcf. Hurricane Alex did not have a major impact on Gulf Coast gas supplies, cutting only about 3 to 4 bcf last week according to reports but traders agreed it served as a reminder that an expected active storm season was just getting underway.

Commodities  advanced broadly for a fourth straight session on Friday, with a key sector index posting its biggest weekly gain since late June. Analysts said that, for the coming week, markets were likely to take their cue from US economic data, such as retail and auto sales numbers for June, due on Wednesday; initial jobless claims for July, due on Thursday; and consumer prices for June, due on Friday. Much would depend too on the performance of the S&P 500 index for US stocks, which had been a key decider for commodity market direction when economic data wasn't enough. The S&P 500 rose 4 percent last week, its biggest jump since July 2009. Investors were also likely to watch the strength of the dollar closely, after the US currency fell half a percent against a basket of major denominations on the week, its biggest decline since June 25. A weaker dollar often boosts buying in commodities as raw materials priced in the currency become cheaper for holders of other money.

Gold briefly rose 1.5 percent to four-day highs above $1,210 an ounce on Friday, but selling around that level kept price gains capped. Uncertainty surrounding the global economy and slow summer trading sessions kept prices, both in precious metals as well as correlated markets such as equities in check. Analysts polled said the metal was expected to stay in the current range until clearer signs of economic direction emerge. The yellow metal's ability to avoid a breakdown below last week's support low at $1,185 an ounce, a level dating back about 6 weeks, and then claim higher highs in each of the last two sessions, indicated it should maintain current ranges. Until the outlook for the US and global economy becomes clearer, analysts said they expect gold should trade mostly sideways, though its trading band would be more likely to expand to the upside.

• Companies started on Thursday to restart some of the 421,350 barrels per day of oil output, about a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output, shut as a precaution.

• U.S. crude oil futures fell for the fifth day in a row on Friday, suffering the first weekly decline in four weeks, as U.S. employment in June fell for the first time this year, adding to worries that the economic recovery is stalling.

• For the week, the contract dropped $6.72, or 8.52 percent, the steepest decline since the first trading week of May, when prices sank more than $11, or nearly 13 percent.

Commodities – Gold prices rebounded on Friday on technical strength and bargain hunting after double-dip recession fears triggered the biggest losses in six weeks in the previous session. Gold was supported by a stronger euro against the dollar ahead of the US Independence Day long weekend, even as crude oil was on track to fall almost 10 percent for the week after a larger-than-expected decline in June US nonfarm payrolls. Silver and platinum group metals also fell sharply for the week on demand worries amid signs of slowing economic recovery and lacklustre US auto sales.

Gold ended the week nearly 4 percent lower, following Thursday's plunge to below $1,200 an ounce as a major technical break sparked fund selling. The bullion market initially ignored a report that showed US private payrolls rose only modestly in June and overall employment fell for the first time this year. Meanwhile, gold continued to trade in close tandem with the US dollar, maintaining a link that was strongest at the height of the European debt crisis in May, when the two were generally rising.

Sugar prices fell following July's expiry on Wednesday, as dealers predicted the demand which propped up July prices, would now taper off. The size of the upcoming Indian crop remains key to sugar's price outlook and with uncertainty as to whether the country will need to import sugar in 2010/11, dealers said it was too early to have a clear view. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer but its production has seen large swings over the past couple of seasons as farmers have responded to prices.

Crude Oil  – Oil fell for the fifth day in a row on Friday, as US employment in June fell for the first time this year, adding to worries that the economic recovery is stalling. Crude slid for the first time in four weeks. In the process, it suffered the steepest decline since the first trading week of May, at the onset of the euro-zone's sovereign debt troubles. On a weekly basis, oil prices were down about 9 percent. In the second quarter, they fell almost 10 percent, reacting to a toxic mix of risk aversion, equity losses, European debt worries, sluggish global growth and high crude stockpiles.

Crude oil stockpiles in the United States fell more than expected last week as imports declined, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose, according to US Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 2 million barrels in the week ended June 25 to 363.1 million barrels, EIA said. Analysts had expected crude stocks to fall by a more modest 900,000 barrels. Crude stocks fell as US crude imports dropped by 631,000 barrels per day (bpd) to an average 9.45 million bpd. US gasoline inventories rose by 537,000 barrels to 218.1 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 500,000 barrels. Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.5 million barrels to 159.4 million barrels, the EIA data showed, compared with analyst forecasts for a more modest, 800,000 barrel rise.

OPEC crude oil supply is expected to fall in June from the 17-month high reached in May because of lower supplies from Iraq, Angola and Nigeria. Supply from the 11 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with output targets, all except Iraq, averaged 26.75 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down from 26.90 million bpd in May, according to a survey of oil firms, OPEC officials and analysts. The decline mainly reflects output disruption in Nigeria rather than an OPEC effort to improve adherence to output targets, which has been falling since 2009. OPEC, source of more than a third of the world's oil, has left its output ceiling unchanged for more than a year since announcing a record supply curb of 4.2 million bpd in December 2008 to combat lower demand and prices.

Natural Gas –- Gas prices ended sharply lower on Friday, as investors took profits ahead of the holiday weekend despite Thursday's supportive weekly inventory report.

Thursday's 60 billion cubic feet weekly inventory build was seen as supportive, noting it was below the estimate of 64 bcf and well below last year's 73 bcf gain and the five-year average for that week of 82 bcf. But the US Energy Information Administration report showed total domestic gas inventories for the week ended June 25 climbed to 2.684 trillion cubic feet, just 27 bcf or 1 percent, below last year's record highs and a level not normally reached until after the third week of July. The injection cut the inventory surplus to the five-year average by 22 bcf to 287 bcf, but stocks still stand at a comfortable 12 percent cushion to that benchmark. Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 66 bcf to 86 bcf, versus a 74-bcf build for the same week last year and a five-year average gain of 80 bcf. If weekly stock builds through October match the five-year average pace, US inventories will begin next heating season with 3.770 tcf in the ground, below last November's record high of 3.837 tcf, but still more than 8 percent above average.